My dad is flying in this afternoon to go to the Patriots-Chiefs game on Monday night with Berney, Pratik, and me, so I'm doing my NFL picks a bit early this week. Hopefully I remember to do the Thanksgiving picks in time. It looks like Lucas has overtaken me, which just follows the pattern every year of Lucas falling behind, then mysteriously catching up. I attribute it to his having Lisa do his picks when he starts losing. He hasn't officially announced doing so this year, but I have a hunch...

PIT at CIN: Cincinnati has been doing well lately, and Pittsburgh is about due for a trap game loss...but then Chad Johnson pulled a Gerard Warren and ran his mouth to make sure the Steelers don't overlook the lowly Bengals. PIT

IND at CHI: This is about the time of the year when dome teams start losing outdoor cold-weather games, but I don't think the Bears' defense is good enough to hold the Colts long enough for their terrible offense to score. IND

AZ at CAR: The Cardinals are on the rise, and the Panthers still have no running game to speak of. I don't like ever picking Arizona, but this feels like one of those weeks where I'll have to. AZ

STL at BUF: Speaking of dome teams losing outdoors. It's the Rams, champions of always playing at or below their opponents' level, against the Bills, who looked positively awful last week against New England. Never pick Mike Martz in a game where there is any doubt. BUF

DAL at BAL: The Cowboys got punk'd by Terrell Owens on Monday night, and usually after a performance like that teams will step up and win a surprising game, but I think they've pretty much given up. BAL

SF at TB: Rumors of Brian Griese's resurgence are mostly premature. Anyone can carve up the Chiefs defense. It looks like he gets another cream-puff game here though. TB

DEN at NO: Speaking of beating the Chiefs, it's the Saints and wacky Aaron Brooks. Sometimes he throws passes backwards, and sometimes he throws touchdowns. Which Aaron Brooks will show up today? The same one that always does: the crappy one. DEN

DET at MIN: The Vikings need to pull out of their tailspin quickly, but they're still without Randy Moss. Anyone remember a few weeks ago when analysts were wondering if Daunte Culpepper would break Marino's TD record? It seems so long ago. MIN

TEN at JAX: The Jags continue to win without having any talent whatsoever. Fred Taylor runs wild until he gets in the red zone, Jimmy Smith is 35 years old, and David Garrard is David Garrard. Yet they could be 7-3 after this game? JAX

NYJ at CLE: A few weeks ago, the Jets were undefeated, now they're struggling to stay afloat until Chad Pennington comes back. Looks like they aren't that good after all. NYJ

MIA at SEA: Put this game in Miami and it's another loss for the disappointing Seahawks, but you just can't pick a 1-8 team to win on the road. SEA

SD at OAK: Do you think that Drew Brees remembered who he is during the bye week? Even if he did, Raiders-at-home isn't even worth considering for an upset anymore. SD

WAS at PHI: If I had a house, I would wager it against the Redskins this week. There is no possible way they will win this game. PHI

ATL at NYG: I bet Kurt Warner is secretly glad to be out of this game. Eli Manning is going to get absolutely *killed* by the Falcons d-line. And you really have to root against someone who engineered a trade before the draft so he could be on the team he wanted. ATL

GB at HOU: I just have a funny feeling about this one. Call it a hunch. HOU

NE at KC: The Patriots are *underdogs* in this game. How is that possible? They're 8-1, defending Super Bowl champions, and recently completed the longest winning streak in NFL history going against a team that is 3-6 and recently lost to the Saints and Bucs. What? NE